The method suggests the most effective sequence of steps for the investigation and provides guidance on when to terminate the investigation. The uncertainty in measurements and evidence collection are accounted for in an explicit and quantitative manner. The method helps in developing a set of hypotheses about the possible causes of an anomaly and uses the evidence gathered during an investigation to evaluate the likelihood of each hypothesis. This paper presents a method we are developing which is based on decision analysis techniques and Bayesian probability analysis. Currently there are no standardized methods available for guiding an investigation and more » drawing conclusions from it. Therefore, it is particularly important that investigations of SNM safeguards anomalies be carried out systematically and that all conclusions from the investigation be thoroughly documented and logically justified. In most cases no specific cause can be conclusively proven. Determining the likely cause of an anomaly is often complex, time consuming, and costly. These anomalies can have many causes, including simple bookkeeping or measurement errors or malevolent acts by insiders. Nuclear facilities are responsible for resolving nuclear materials safeguards anomalies indicating that special nuclear material (SNM) may be missing. A new metric is also proposed for quantifying the overall effectiveness of the MC and A system. In this paper a method is described for quantifying the detection capability and resolution effectiveness for each possible error. ![]() The analysis proceeds by more » identifying the types of errors that could logically occur in the measurement and recording system and estimating their frequency. The approach begins with a detailed specification of the material process cycle including all authorized material locations, possible unauthorized locations, and the procedures for measuring and recording movement between locations. An approach is presented for systematically evaluating the overall anomaly detection and resolution capability of an MC and A system. The ability to make a definitive resolution often depends on the types of measurement data available and on the way records are maintained in the Material control and Accounting (MC and A) system. A new metric is also proposed for quantifying the overall effectiveness of the MC&A = ,ĭiscrepancies in accounting for Special Nuclear Material (SNM) require quick and accurate resolution. A method is described for quantifying the detection capability and resolution effectiveness for each possible error. The analysis proceeds by identifying the types of errors that could logically occur in the measurement and recording system and estimating their frequency. The method begins with a detailed specification of the material process cycle including, all authorized material locations, possible unauthorized locations, and the procedures for measuring and recording movement between locations. ![]() A new method is presented for systematically evaluating the overall anomaly detection and resolution capability of an MC&A system. The ability to make a definitive resolution often depends on the types of measurement data available and on the way records are maintained in the Material Control and Accounting (MC&A) system. Discrepancies in accounting for Special Nuclear Material (SNM) require quick and accurate resolution.
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